Calculation Results

• Chance that adaptive mutation will occur = 1/600

• • Specific change in specific nucleotide = (mutation rate * # births) / 3 (as there are 4 kinds of nucleotides)

• Chance that mutation will survive = 1/500

• • Spread to take over the population

• Chance that mutation will appear & survive = 1/600 x 1/500 = 1/300,000 (about the chance of 18 coin flips coming up all heads)

• Chance of 500 steps occurring = 1/300,00 multiplied by itself 500 times = 2.7 * 10**-2739

• This is orders of magnitude smaller than the chance of picking a particular atom out of the entire universe! (which has about 10**80 atoms)

• Conclusion: The evolutionary scenario is mathematically IMPOSSIBLE